 | | Mechanics of Solids
A Journal of Russian Academy of Sciences | | Founded
in January 1966
Issued 6 times a year
Print ISSN 0025-6544
Online ISSN 1934-7936 |
Archive of Issues
| Total articles in the database: | | 13554 |
| In Russian (Èçâ. ÐÀÍ. ÌÒÒ): | | 8194
|
| In English (Mech. Solids): | | 5360 |
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| << Previous article | Volume 60, Issue 7 / 2025 | Next article >> |
| Binxia Yuan, Minghan Wei, Fulei Li, Rui Zhu, and Jianping Tan, "Prediction for Axial Creep Life of Zirconium Alloy Tubes," Mech. Solids. 60 (7), 6466-6477 (2025) |
| Year |
2025 |
Volume |
60 |
Number |
7 |
Pages |
6466-6477 |
| DOI |
10.1134/S0025654425604951 |
| Title |
Prediction for Axial Creep Life of Zirconium Alloy Tubes |
| Author(s) |
Binxia Yuan (College of Energy and Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai, 200090 China, yuanbinxia100@163.com)
Minghan Wei (College of Energy and Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai, 200090 China)
Fulei Li (CGN Cangnan Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., Cangnan, Zhejiang, 3258002 China)
Rui Zhu (College of Energy and Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai, 200090 China, zhuruish@163.com)
Jianping Tan (School of Mechanical and Power Engineering, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200237 China, jptan@ecust.edu.cn) |
| Abstract |
Zirconium alloys are the predominant cladding materials in current nuclear reactors, and
their creep behavior under high temperature plays a decisive role in structural safety. Meanwhile, it is
crucial to obtain accurate creep predictions based on a small amount of data due to the limited data
and high testing costs of creep experiments. In the study, the axial creep behavior of Zr alloy tubes was
tested on a Zwick universal testing platform at 350°C under different loads. To improve both the physical consistency and predictive accuracy of the model, a sinh-type constitutive equation was adopted,
and model parameter identification together with uncertainty quantification was carried out using
Bayesian inference and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. This framework yields
fully probabilistic predictions, including lifetime credible intervals. The results demonstrate that the
model not only accurately captures the experimental data, but also exhibits strong extrapolation capability and reliability in the low-stress regime. Thus, this study achieves material life prediction through
constitutive modeling and probabilistic inference framework. |
| Keywords |
zirconium alloy, axial creep, constitutive modeling, Bayesian inference, life prediction |
| Received |
10 September 2025 | Revised |
05 November 2025 | Accepted |
06 November 2025 |
| Link to Fulltext |
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